Info

148,890.98

10,2616.80

Source: Based on FAO Data.

Source: Based on FAO Data.

The global demand for cinnamon is expected to be around 102,616 t by 2004—05 (Table 12.21).

Supply

The opposite considerations apply to supply. Here, Indonesia holds the key. Its ability to regulate supply of cassia is likely to dictate the price internationally. Indonesia's management of this issue may be influenced by the proximity of the energetic entrepot Singapore. New exporters of cassia must also be conscious of China and now Vietnam and the speed at which they are expanding production level. Total world production of cinnamon is growing at the rate of 5.6% per annum, which is more than the world population growth rate. Thus, the anticipated supply in the form of increased production is expected to be a positive one. The fitted equation based on the selected model is:

Accordingly the projected world supply in the form of production increase up to 2004—05 will be as shown in the Table 12.21. The expected supply (production) by the year 2005—06 will be around 148,890 t. As can be seen from the fitted equation, where a is nearer to one, recent developments have more impact on the future supply.

As concluded by Vinning (1990) the combination of the above two calculations of supply and demand suggest that within the overall pessimistic outlook the prospects for cassia is better than for cinnamon in the years to come.

References

Anonymous (1995) Cassia (Cinnamon) — A Modern Herbal Home Page. Eletronic Newsletter.

Anonymous (accessed in December 2001) Cassia. http://herbal-tonics.com/pc-ingr.html/. Anonymous (accessed in December 2001) http://www.mekonginfo.org/mrc-on/doclib.net/. Baruah, A. (2000) Cinnamomum verum Presl., the source of inevitable flavouring spicy bark — True Cinnamon. Spice India — Tree Spices Special, November, 2000, pp. 5—7.

Box, G.E.P. and Jenkins, G.M. (1976) Timeseries Analysis: Forecasting and Control. San Francisco Bay, USA.

FAO (1995) Cinnamomum Oils (including cinnamon and cassia). In: Non-wood Forest Products for Rural Income and Sustainable Forestry. M-37, ISBN 92—5—103648—9. Publications Division, Food and Agriculture Organisation, Rome, Italy.

FAO (2000) Spices. In. Definition and Classification of Commodities (Draft). http://www.fao. org/WAICENT/faoinfo/economic/faodef/fdefioe.htm.

Grieve, M. (1979) A Modern Herbal. Dover Publications, Inc., New York.

Holt, C.C. (1957) Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponential weighted moving averages. ONR Research Memorandum, Carnige Institute, 52.

International Trade Centre UNCTAD/GATT (1982) Spices: a survey of the world market. Geneva, 1982. 2 vols.

International Trade Centre UNCTAD/GATT (1996) The Global Spice Trade and the Uruguay Round agreements Geneva: ITC/CS, 1996, xi, 99p.

International Trade Centre UNCTAD/WTO, (1998) Market Research File on Spices: Overview of the European Union, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Russian Federation. M.DPMD/98/0103/Rev.1, 83p.

International Trade Centre UNCTAD/WTO, (2000) Global Spice Markets — Imports 1994-98, 1211, Geneva, Switzerland.

Leung, A.Y and Foster, S. (1996). Encyclopedia of Common Natural Ingredients used in Food, Drugs and Cosmetics, 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Madan, M.S. (2001) The Sensational tree bark: a commercial outlook. Spice India (Tamil). Vol. 14, No. 1, January, 2001.

Ratwatte, Fl. (1991) The Spice of life: cinnamon and Ceylon. http://www.Infolanka.org.

Rema, J. and Krishnamoorthy, B. (1999). Commercial exploitation of Chinese Cassia (Cinnamomum cassia). Indian Spices, Vol. 35, No. 4, pp. 2—4.

Spices Board (1988) Report on the Domestic Survey of Spices (Part — 1). Spices Board, Ministry of Commerce, Govt. of India, Cochin-18.

Spices Board (1990) Production and import of tree spices. In: Status Paper on Spices. Spices Board, Ministry of Commerce, Govt. of India, Cochin-18.

Spices Board (1992) Report of the forum for encouraging export of spices. Spices Board, Cochin-18.

United States Department of Agriculture/Foreign Agricultural Service (1998) Tropical Products: World Markets and Trade. Circular Series, FTROP 1-98, March, 1998.

United States Department of Agriculture/Foreign Agricultural Service (1999). Tropical Products: World Markets and Trade. Circular Series, FTROP 1-99, March, 1999.

Vinning, G. (1990) Marketing Perspectives on a Potential Pacific Spice Industry. ACIAR Technical Reports No. 15, 60pp.

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